Legislature(2021 - 2022)BELTZ 105 (TSBldg)

04/04/2022 01:30 PM Senate LABOR & COMMERCE

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Audio Topic
01:30:26 PM Start
01:31:04 PM Confirmation Hearing(s)
01:58:05 PM HB55
03:11:35 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Consideration of the Governor's Appointees: TELECONFERENCED
Alaska Worker's Compensation Board
-Christopher Dean, Matthew Barth
Board of Nursing -Lena Lafferty
Fishermen's Fund Advisory & Appeals Council
-Clay Bezenek
Board of Social Work Examiners - Gabriel King
Real Estate Commission
-Devon (Thomas) Doran, Chad Stigen
Board of Dental Examiners - Dominic Wenzell
Board of Certified Real Estate Appraisers
-Valery Kudryn
Board of Certified Direct-Entry Midwives
-Hannah St. George
Board of Chiropractic Examiners - Taylor Friend
Alcoholic Beverage Control Board - Janice Hill
Board of Architects, Engineers, & Land Surveyors
-Sterling Strait
-- Invited & Public Testimony --
+= HB 55 PEACE OFFICER/FIREFIGHTER RETIRE BENEFITS TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
-Presentation of Updated Actuarial Report
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
        HB  55-PEACE OFFICER/FIREFIGHTER RETIRE BENEFITS                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
1:58:05 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR  COSTELLO   reconvened  the   meeting  and   announced  the                                                               
consideration of CS  FOR HOUSE BILL NO. 55(FIN)  "An Act relating                                                               
to participation  of certain peace  officers and  firefighters in                                                               
the defined benefit and defined  contribution plans of the Public                                                               
Employees' Retirement  System of Alaska; relating  to eligibility                                                               
of peace  officers and firefighters for  medical, disability, and                                                               
death benefits;  relating to liability  of the  Public Employees'                                                               
Retirement  System  of Alaska;  and  providing  for an  effective                                                               
date."                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  COSTELLO asked  Mr. Kershner  and Mr.  Young to  brief the                                                               
committee on the updated fiscal note for HB 55.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
1:58:43 PM                                                                                                                    
DAVID  KERSHNER, FSA,  EA, MAAA,  FCA,  Principal and  Consulting                                                               
Actuary, Buck  Global LLC., Estero,  Florida, stated that  he was                                                               
the lead retirement actuary for  the State of Alaska, Division of                                                               
Retirement and  Benefits (DRB) retirement systems.  He introduced                                                               
Scott Young  as the lead  health actuary  for the work  Buck does                                                               
for  DRB. He  advised that  he and  Mr. Young  would discuss  the                                                               
updated fiscal  note cost  analysis for  HB 55,  all of  which is                                                               
covered in the letter dated March 4, 2022.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER said  there are three basic  differences between the                                                               
2021 fiscal  note and the 2022  update, but the analysis  did not                                                               
change.  The first  difference reflects  the change  in actuarial                                                               
valuations  resulting  from  changes   in  the  participant  data                                                               
between 2020 and 2021.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
The  second  difference is  that  last  year's analysis  did  not                                                               
reflect  SB 55,  which changed  the way  the state-as-an-employer                                                               
makes  contributions to  the  PERS trusts.  That  bill went  into                                                               
effect  July  1 2021.  The  updated  analysis reflects  both  the                                                               
additional  state  contributions   and  the  state-as-an-employer                                                               
contributions.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
The third  difference reflects the  change in the  effective date                                                               
of HB 55 from 7/1/2021 to 7/1/2022.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:01:50 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. KERSHNER  said that under  both analyses, Buck  is projecting                                                               
increases to the state contributions  to PERS. The reason is that                                                               
HB 55 gives the current active  members in the DCR Plan for peace                                                               
officers and  fire fighters  a one-time election  to stay  in the                                                               
Defined Contribution  Retirement (DCR) plan  or switch to  the HB
55  Defined Benefit  (DB)  plan. Additionally,  under  HB 55  all                                                               
future  peace  officer  and  firefighter  hires  will  enter  the                                                               
Defined Benefit Plan rather than the Defined Contribution Plan.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Because  the participants  are projected  to shift  from the  DCR                                                               
Plan to  the DB Plan, there  will be a shift  in contributions as                                                               
well as the new allocation of those contributions.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:03:58 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  KERSHNER said  the table  on  page 2  of the  March 4,  2022                                                               
letter  summarizes   the  increases   in  the   additional  state                                                               
contributions as  well as the  state-as-an-employer contributions                                                               
to PERS  for FY23 through FY28.  The pie charts show  the current                                                               
distribution of the 22 percent  of pay employer contributions and                                                               
the distribution under HB 55.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The pie  chart on  the left shows  that PERS  employers currently                                                               
contribute  five   percent  of   employee  pay  to   the  Defined                                                               
Contribution Accounts;  three percent (green) to  employee Health                                                               
Reimbursement  Accounts (HRA);  1.5 percent  (yellow) to  the DCR                                                               
Trust for occupational death and  disability benefits and retiree                                                               
health care  benefits; and  12.5 percent  to the  Defined Benefit                                                               
Trust to help pay down the unfunded liability in that plan.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:06:17 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. KERSHNER  directed attention  to the pie  chart on  the right                                                               
that  shows   the  distribution   of  the  22   percent  employer                                                               
contributions, should HB 55 become  law. The three percent of pay                                                               
contribution  employers  make to  HRAs  on  behalf of  peace/fire                                                               
members affected  by HB 55  is shown  in green; the  minimum nine                                                               
percent  that will  be contributed  to the  HB 55  Trust that  is                                                               
proposed to be  set up within the Defined Benefit  Trust is shown                                                               
in yellow;  and the ten percent  that will be distributed  to the                                                               
Defined Benefit  Trust is  shown in  orange. Employers  are still                                                               
contributing 22 percent,  but the state will have to  make up the                                                               
2.5 percent shortfall between the  12.5 percent that is currently                                                               
being  deposited  to  the  DB  Trust to  pay  down  the  unfunded                                                               
liability  and the  10 percent  that  will be  deposited to  that                                                               
account should HB 55 pass.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KERSHNER  stated  that the  increases  in  the  state-as-an-                                                               
employer  contributions are  due to  a couple  of things.  First,                                                               
under  SB  55  the   state-as-an-employer  contributes  the  full                                                               
actuarial contribution rate  to both the DB Trust  and DCR Trust.                                                               
Under HB 55,  those contribution rates are  projected to increase                                                               
slightly  because  retention  rates  are expected  to  rise  when                                                               
employees  have  the opportunity  to  receive  a defined  benefit                                                               
pension.  In sum,  employee retention  is expected  to be  higher                                                               
after HB 55  than before, so projected payroll is  expected to be                                                               
higher.  Because the  dollar amounts  are  the contribution  rate                                                               
times the projected  payroll, that leads to  the higher state-as-                                                               
an-employer contributions, as shown on page 2.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
2:11:10 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. KERSHNER  explained that two mitigating  provisions are built                                                               
into HB  55. One is  that the ARM  Board can increase  the member                                                               
contribution rates from eight percent of  pay up to 12 percent of                                                               
pay. The  other is that  the ARM Board  can also reduce  the Post                                                               
Retirement Pension  Adjustment (PRPA) benefits, which  are linked                                                               
to changes in the consumer price index (CPI).                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Under the  provisions of  HB 55,  the ARM  Board can  reduce PRPA                                                               
benefits  if  the status  of  the  HB  55  Trust falls  below  90                                                               
percent. The  trust will  be nearly 100  percent funded  with the                                                               
transfer of  assets under the  proposed bill, and it  is expected                                                               
to remain funded  well above 90 percent if it  earns according to                                                               
the  assumptions  the ARM  Board  has  adopted. Because  of  that                                                               
projection, the Buck cost analysis  did not reflect any reduction                                                               
in  PRPA benefits.  Similarly, the  analysis did  not assume  any                                                               
increases to the  eight percent member contributions.  That is an                                                               
action the ARM Board would have  to take because unlike the PRPA,                                                               
there is no  threshold under which member  contributions would be                                                               
increased automatically.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:13:54 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. KERSHNER  clarified that HB  55 does  not offer these  new DB                                                               
members  the   ten  percent  Alaska  residency   cost  of  living                                                               
allowance  (COLA)  that  retired  PERS members  who  continue  to                                                               
reside  in Alaska  currently receive.  The only  COLA that  HB 55                                                               
members would receive is PRPA.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER offered  to answer questions about  the updated cost                                                               
analysis.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:14:49 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR COSTELLO  referenced page  5 of the  letter and  noted that                                                               
708 peace and  fire employees don't have the  ability to transfer                                                               
all their  existing service in  the DCR plan  to the DB  plan, so                                                               
they would be indebted to the  state. She asked what would happen                                                               
to those  individuals if  HB 55  were to pass  and they  opted to                                                               
change to the DB plan.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  explained that  at the time  of the  analysis those                                                               
708  employees did  not have  sufficient funds  in their  defined                                                               
contribution  accounts  to purchase  all  the  service they  have                                                               
under the DCR  plan. The assumption was that  they would transfer                                                               
the  entire  DCR  account  and assume  an  indebtedness  for  the                                                               
remainder  that would  need  to  be paid  down  according to  the                                                               
indebtedness rules  governing all PERS members.  The analysis did                                                               
not  assume  that  any  of   those  members  would  purchase  the                                                               
additional  service  outright  because, on  an  actuarial  basis,                                                               
there is no net effect in doing so.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:18:28 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR COSTELLO asked  why HB 55 assumes a 7.38  percent return on                                                               
investment when the ARM Board  projects a 6.6 percent return over                                                               
the next decade.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:19:12 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR STEVENS joined the committee.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KERSHNER  replied he  didn't  know  the  basis for  the  6.6                                                               
percent return,  but the Buck  analysis assumed a return  of 7.38                                                               
percent because that  is the rate the ARM Board  adopted in 2019,                                                               
based on the 2017 experience  study. Changing expectations in the                                                               
capital market caused the return  rate to drop from eight percent                                                               
to 7.38  percent. Buck  is currently  in the  middle of  the next                                                               
experience study that is conducted  once every four years and the                                                               
new assumptions will become effective with the 2022 valuations.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR COSTELLO  asked if  Buck's March  4, 2022  letter satisfied                                                               
the statutory requirement for an  actuarial report on any bill of                                                               
this nature.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER answered that it does.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  MICCICHE commented  that the  drop four  years ago  from                                                               
eight percent  to 7.38 percent  was fairly significant.  He asked                                                               
what  would cause  that  sort of  reduction  from one  experience                                                               
study to the next.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER said the general  explanation is that capital market                                                               
expectations  and asset  allocations change  over time  and those                                                               
changes are  reflected when a  new actuarial experience  study is                                                               
done  every four  years. The  ARM Board  sets new  assumptions at                                                               
that  time  based on  the  new  expectations. The  eight  percent                                                               
return  assumption was  set in  2014 and  was based  on the  2013                                                               
experience study. The expected equity  returns in 2018 were lower                                                               
in general than  they were in 2014 and the  ARM Board adopted the                                                               
7.38 percent return assumption at  that time, based on the latest                                                               
experience  study.  Four  years  from   now  there  will  be  new                                                               
expectations                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:25:41 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MICCICHE calculated  that the drop from  eight percent to                                                               
7.38 was  .62 percent. He  asked how the HB  55 DB plan  would be                                                               
affected if  the next  experience study  resulted in  another .62                                                               
percent drop in expected returns.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  replied that the  liabilities in the  plan increase                                                               
whenever  the  assumed return  is  decreased.  For example,  more                                                               
money needs  to be  set aside  today to pay  a $1,000  benefit in                                                               
five years if the expected return  is 7.38 percent, as opposed to                                                               
eight percent. He noted that if  Buck had done the analysis using                                                               
a  6.5   percent  return  instead   of  7.38  percent,   all  the                                                               
contribution  numbers pre-HB  55  would be  higher  than what  is                                                               
currently  projected,  but the  difference  pre-  and post-HB  55                                                               
should be relatively similar.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  reminded the committee  that one of  the motivating                                                               
factors in the  2006 decision to close the  defined benefit plans                                                               
to future  hires was to reduce  some of the risk  the state bears                                                               
in  having  defined benefit  pensions  promised  to retirees.  He                                                               
pointed  out that  the first  page of  the March  4, 2022  letter                                                               
states that  by opening the  DB plan  to peace officers  and fire                                                               
fighters, the  state will take on  more risk because the  DB plan                                                               
will continue to  get larger as opposed to  the current situation                                                               
where  it is  projected to  reach an  apex then  get smaller  and                                                               
smaller  as   the  covered   population  retires,   leaves  state                                                               
employment without  a retirement benefit, or  dies. Reopening the                                                               
DB plan  to peace officers  and fire fighters increases  the risk                                                               
to the state. He acknowledged that  some of the risk is mitigated                                                               
by the levers  the ARM Board can control, but  the risk cannot be                                                               
eliminated entirely.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:32:10 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  MICCICHE  questioned  whether the  existing  liabilities                                                               
would actually  grow as  Mr. Kershner  indicated, or  just shrink                                                               
more slowly.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  stated that without  HB 55, the liabilities  of the                                                               
current  defined  benefit  plan   are  expected  to  continue  to                                                               
increase  for a  certain period  of time.  After that  the active                                                               
population will  get smaller because  there are no new  hires and                                                               
some employees will retire, some  will leave employment without a                                                               
retirement benefit,  and some people will  die before retirement.                                                               
Ultimately,  the assets  in the  plan will  be depleted  once the                                                               
benefit is paid to the last retiree.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
By  contrast, HB  55  opens  the defined  benefit  plan to  peace                                                               
officers  and  fire  fighters  so  that  portion  of  the  plan's                                                               
population will continue to grow. It  is also expected to be more                                                               
stable because  of the  defined benefit, so  that portion  of the                                                               
plan's  liabilities will  not peak  and  then decline  as in  the                                                               
current situation.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:35:55 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MICCICHE  said he would  like to  see a graph  that shows                                                               
how adding a small subset of  state employees to the DB plan will                                                               
affect the overall unfunded liability of the state over time.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:37:01 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR GRAY-JACKSON  pointed out  that not only  does HB  55 not                                                               
offer the ten percent COLA for  retirees who remain in Alaska, it                                                               
also  sets  the minimum  age  of  55  to collect  the  retirement                                                               
benefit and  it does not offer  a Cadillac health care  plan. She                                                               
noted the  current difficulties associated with  retaining police                                                               
officers and fire fighters and asked  if he expects HB 55 to help                                                               
with that.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER said he didn't  know the particulars but the general                                                               
expectation is  that the defined  contribution plan  workforce is                                                               
more  mobile  and  those workers  typically  take  their  defined                                                               
contribution  account  balance  when they  move.  By  comparison,                                                               
defined benefit plans  provide incentives for people  to stay and                                                               
ultimately receive the lifetime defined benefit pension.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  continued to explain that  Buck's ongoing actuarial                                                               
valuations  make  assumptions about  all  future  events, one  of                                                               
which  is  the withdrawal  assumption.  That  is that  a  certain                                                               
percentage of  people at various  ages will  terminate employment                                                               
during the  year. A  comparison of the  withdrawal rates  for the                                                               
two  plans  shows  that  the withdrawal  rates  for  the  defined                                                               
benefit  plan  are  lower  because   of  that  assumed  decreased                                                               
mobility. He said the expectation  is that the retention rate for                                                               
members in a defined benefit plan  is higher, but he did not have                                                               
the details to know how  that translates to the actual experience                                                               
for the state.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  GRAY-JACKSON pointed  out that  both the  state and  the                                                               
Municipality of Anchorage were having  problems with retention of                                                               
police officers  and fire  fighters. She also  asked for  a brief                                                               
explanation   of   how   raising   employee   contributions   and                                                               
withholding inflation  adjustments from retirees will  reduce the                                                               
risk for the state.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. KERSHNER  answered that if  the ARM  Board were to  raise the                                                               
member  contributions,  less money  would  be  required from  the                                                               
participating  employers  and  the  state. For  example,  if  the                                                               
member  contributions  were  increased   from  8  percent  to  10                                                               
percent, those contributions  would fund a larger  portion of the                                                               
pension benefit liabilities.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR COSTELLO  thanked Mr.  Kershner and  suggested that  if the                                                               
members had more  questions they could submit them  in writing to                                                               
her office.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:42:17 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR COSTELLO listed  the individuals waiting to  comment on the                                                               
report  and the  bill. She  turned  first to  William Fornia  and                                                               
asked him to summarize the PowerPoint he provided.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:42:59 PM                                                                                                                    
WILLIAM FORNIA,  President, Pension Trustee Advisors  (PTI), Inc.                                                               
and  Actuary  for  Firefighters Association,  Greenwood  Village,                                                               
Colorado, began  his presentation by  pointing to slides 2  and 3                                                               
that provide  his credentials and  a sample of his  work history,                                                               
including his work with the State of Alaska starting in 2005.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. FORNIA  stated that slide  5 illustrates the necessity  of HB
55. The chart  of the hypothetical benefits for  Tier III defined                                                               
benefit (DB) retirement versus Tier  IV defined contribution (DC)                                                               
retirement for  police/fire employees whose final  average salary                                                               
was  $80,000 demonstrates  that  the Tier  III  DB retirement  is                                                               
dramatically  higher  than  the  Tier  IV  DC  benefit  and  only                                                               
marginally higher than Social Security.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:46:08 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FORNIA  skipped   to  slide  7  that   lists  the  actuarial                                                               
implications of HB 55. The slide read as follows:                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
        • Buck Fiscal note shows modest cost                                                                                    
        • Risk to State is "Adverse Plan Experience"                                                                            
      • HB 55 Plan has Safeguards to mitigate this risk                                                                         
        • We have performed simulations to analyze this                                                                         
          risk                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR.   FORNIA   mentioned   Senator  Micciche's   question   about                                                               
liabilities going  up and  clarified that  he likely  was talking                                                               
about unfunded  liabilities, which are deliberately  designed not                                                               
to go up.  He directed attention to slide 8  that talks about how                                                               
HB 55 strikes a compromise. It read as follows:                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     • Start with 12 percent fixed employer contribution                                                                        
        and manage plan within that target as possible                                                                          
     • Design current target benefit levels                                                                                     
        Consider benefits provided by DCR and latest DB                                                                         
       • Build in benefit and/or employee contribution                                                                          
        adjustment mechanisms                                                                                                   
     • These provide cushion against adverse experience                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. FORNIA  said the plan  is targeted  to be 114  percent funded                                                               
but  if  the  actuaries  are  wrong and  the  return  isn't  7.38                                                               
percent,  the following  safeguards would  provide a  leaner Tier                                                               
III:                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Safeguard 1: Reduce benefits for the new Tier III DB employees                                                                
   • Minimum eligibility to qualify for the benefit is age 55                                                                 
   • Benefit is based on five-year average salary, not three                                                                    
     years                                                                                                                    
   • Eliminates the 10 percent Alaska residency COLA                                                                          
   • Suspend Post-Retirement Pension Adjustment when the fund is                                                                
     not sufficiently funded                                                                                                  
   • Increase employee and  employer   contributions  up  to  2                                                                 
     percent each if the trust is not sufficiently funded                                                                     
        - This was amended to permit the employee contribution to                                                               
        increase up to 4 percent                                                                                              
                                                                                                                              
Safeguard 2: Actuarial Margins                                                                                                
   • Build in margin in actuarial assumptions.                                                                                  
   • Build reserves in  good times  to  provide  added  funding                                                                 
     during bad times                                                                                                           
   • Compare 12 percent + 8 percent = 20  percent contributions                                                                 
     with costs above                                                                                                           
        - 16.35 percent cost for pension based on 7.00 percent                                                                  
          returns                                                                                                               
        - HRA & Medicare Supplement are another 2.92 percent                                                                    
        - This provides a cushion of 0.73 percent                                                                               
        - Additional 8.04 percent available through PRPA                                                                        
          suspension and additional 4 percent + 2 percent                                                                       
          employee and employer contributions                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Safeguard 3: Reduced Discount Rate                                                                                            
   • Target the pension and health care benefits to be equal to                                                                 
     latest tier DB                                                                                                             
   • Determine the costs based on 7 percent discount rate rather                                                                
     than 7.38 percent assumed by PERS actuary                                                                                  
   • Seek additional funding for this level, and then commit to                                                                 
     this fixed employer contribution rate going forward                                                                        
          This is 12% employer contribution for Police and Fire                                                                 
          employers                                                                                                             
   • Monitor experience and adjust benefits and/or contributions                                                                
     as necessary going forward                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:49:21 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FORNIA turned  to  slide  12 and  discussed  the concept  of                                                               
threshold testing.  He pointed  out that  the Buck  analysis used                                                               
the  7.38  percent  annual  return  that  the  Alaska  Retirement                                                               
Management  (ARM)  Board had  adopted  and  that Pension  Trustee                                                               
Advisors (PTI) built its HB 55  plan around a 7.00 percent annual                                                               
return. PTI's  stress testing demonstrated that  an annual return                                                               
of  6.62 percent  was the  threshold  to avoid  the plan  falling                                                               
below  90  percent   funded  for  50  years.   To  maintain  that                                                               
threshold,   increases  in   employee   contributions  would   be                                                               
triggered if  the annual  return was 6.49  percent, and  the Post                                                               
Retirement Pension  Adjustment would  be suspended if  the annual                                                               
return dropped to 5.43 percent.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:50:36 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FORNIA directed attention to  slide 13 and explained that PTI                                                               
ran  simulations to  look at  how  the funding  level would  fare                                                               
under  various returns.  He  noted that  the  6.6 percent  return                                                               
Chair  Costello  asked about  probably  came  from an  ARM  Board                                                               
investment consultant who  in 2019 projected that  return for the                                                               
next ten years. Observing that  the projection was wrong, he said                                                               
PTI  nevertheless  tried  to  test  what  would  happen  in  that                                                               
scenario. He pointed to the graph  on slide 15 and explained that                                                               
they looked  at the years since  inception and took the  worst 20                                                               
year  period, which  was 2000  to 2020.  He pointed  to the  gray                                                               
line.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
The  stochastic  plan  simulations  that  model  possible  future                                                               
returns start on slide 16, using  some of what the ARM Board uses                                                               
for their projected volatilities.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:52:41 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FORNIA  skipped to the  bar graph  on slide 19  and explained                                                               
that after running 10,000 simulations  they determined that after                                                               
20 years, there is a 23 percent  chance that the plan would be 90                                                               
percent funded  or below and a  23 percent chance the  plan would                                                               
be 149  percent funded,  or above.  The key is  to aim  high, and                                                               
that's what the chart on slide  19 shows. The plan is very likely                                                               
to be  110 percent plus  funded and  reasonably likely to  be 149                                                               
percent plus funded.  He directed attention to the  wedges on the                                                               
last bar that show that the  bottom isn't that bad. The reason is                                                               
there's  the  ability  to  suspend  the  PRPA  and  increase  the                                                               
employee  contributions.  The  plan   was  designed  as  much  as                                                               
possible to build in safeguards.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
He noted that the presentation  included some examples from other                                                               
states but in the interest of time he would take questions.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  COSTELLO  advised  that the  committee  would  hold  their                                                               
questions  to  hear from  the  remaining  individuals waiting  to                                                               
provide testimony.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:55:07 PM                                                                                                                    
RYAN  FROST, Policy  Analyst, Pension  Integrity Project,  Reason                                                               
Foundation,  Los  Angeles,  California,  stated that  he  is  the                                                               
senior  research  and  policy manager  for  the  law  enforcement                                                               
officers and firefighters pension  system in Washington State. He                                                               
highlighted that  the plan  has been  one of  the top  three best                                                               
funded plans since its inception  in the 1970s, primarily because                                                               
it has  kept up to date  with best practices in  pension planning                                                               
and funding design. He reported  that his pension team has played                                                               
a key, pro  bono, technical assistance role on  55 pension reform                                                               
bills  in the  last  six  years. The  pension  reforms they  have                                                               
worked  on include  the new  defined benefit  pension tiers,  new                                                               
hybrid  design  tiers,  cash  balance   tiers,  and  new  defined                                                               
contribution tiers. He  said the team is fairly  agnostic on plan                                                               
design, but most of the reforms  they've worked on have a defined                                                               
benefit component.  Each of the reforms  has had a way  of paying                                                               
for the system that ensures costs  don't eat into state and local                                                               
budgets  and that  the  benefits earned  by  employees are  fully                                                               
funded for their retirement.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST  stated that the  new defined benefit tier  proposed by                                                               
HB 55  does far  too little to  prevent growing  unfunded pension                                                               
liabilities. The tweaks the supporters  claim would eliminate the                                                               
financial  risk to  the state  have  undergone extremely  minimal                                                               
actuarial scrutiny  and there is no  publicly available long-term                                                               
actuarial  forecasting  or  stress  testing  to  justify  such  a                                                               
financially profound policy decision.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR.  FROST  advised  that  his  team  prepared  some  preliminary                                                               
modeling of the proposed new HB  55 tier and the results indicate                                                               
that  HB 55  would likely  expose the  state to  new and  growing                                                               
unfunded   liabilities.  Assuming   all  current   actuarial  and                                                               
demographic   assumptions  are   met,  the   bill  for   employee                                                               
contributions  over an  observed 30  year window  would be  about                                                               
$900  million  due  to  the  need  to  service  growing  unfunded                                                               
liabilities, not $722 million.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST  pointed out that  public pension systems  operate over                                                               
generations,  but  what's been  presented  is  a five  year  cost                                                               
projection based on an assumption  that the proposed pension tier                                                               
would hit all of its actuarial  assumptions all the time. This is                                                               
something that  Alaska PERS  has never  once accomplished  in its                                                               
entire  history. He  noted that  despite this,  the Alaska  House                                                               
passed the bill out of its chamber last year.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST noted that the  Buck actuaries admitted that the fiscal                                                               
note  was   only  updated  for  results   that  raised  actuarial                                                               
valuation and the effects of SB  55. His belief, however, is that                                                               
a proper actuarial  analysis of HB 55 has not  been conducted. He                                                               
drew a comparison  to a bill recently passed  by Washington State                                                               
for its  police and  fire system.  He said  that system  has been                                                               
over funded  since its inception  in the  1970s and this  was the                                                               
first  increase.  It  was  a multiplier  increase  and  that  was                                                               
included  in  the fiscal  note.  He  said  that is  a  relatively                                                               
miniscule task  compared to a  complete pension  design overhaul,                                                               
but it's a shining example of the  level of detail that has to be                                                               
considered when adjusting a pension benefit.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:59:46 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FROST pointed out that even  with the limited scope and rigor                                                               
of the  updated fiscal  note, Buck's  analysis should  raise some                                                               
concerns for policy  makers with the statement  that adverse plan                                                               
experience  or more  conservative assumptions  will increase  the                                                               
PERS   defined   benefit   liabilities,   resulting   in   higher                                                               
contribution rates or more conservative assumptions.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST also  highlighted that from day one the  plan will have                                                               
up to 15  years of liability on its books  because any member can                                                               
have  all  their  previously  earned   service  in  the  DC  plan                                                               
transferred  at the  unrealistically  high discount  rate of  7.3                                                               
percent.  The national  median is  now  under 7  percent and  the                                                               
largest plans  in the  country are  moving down  into the  mid to                                                               
upper six  percentage range. Transferring  service at too  high a                                                               
discount rate  sets up a  situation where any downturn  in market                                                               
performance  or  lowering  of  assumptions  will  quickly  create                                                               
unfunded liabilities in the system in year two or three.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR.  FROST said  Buck also  missed  the point  that the  existing                                                               
defined   contribution  plan   offers  almost   the  exact   same                                                               
retirement benefit  as the bill  proposes. He said  this suggests                                                               
that  increasing the  employee  contribution  and adding  annuity                                                               
purchase options  in the current  plan could yield  an equivalent                                                               
benefit  and provide  lifetime income  options. The  statement in                                                               
the fiscal note  that approximately 94 percent of  the DC service                                                               
as  of June  30, 2021  was  credited to  the PERS  DB means  that                                                               
assets in  the current  DC plan holdings  would cover  nearly all                                                               
the equivalent liabilities in the HB 55 pension tier.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST suggested that another  potential explanation for using                                                               
7.3 percent  is because  using 7 percent  would make  the service                                                               
credit purchase actually more expensive  at the time of transfer,                                                               
so members  entering this new  pension tier would  effectively be                                                               
taking a benefit cut.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:03:05 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FROST  said there has  been no  answer to the  question about                                                               
what it  would take to  push the actuarial determined  rate above                                                               
the 9 percent  employer contribution because there  hasn't been a                                                               
real actuarial analysis done.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST said HB 55 is  being proposed by groups that claim that                                                               
recruitment and  retention troubles are due  to the lack of  a DB                                                               
pension  for  the  members. However,  that  doesn't  square  with                                                               
nationwide  data  that  indicates   that  86  percent  of  police                                                               
stations  across the  U.S. are  facing shortages  and all  except                                                               
Alaska have a benefit with  some defined benefit component to it.                                                               
In  fact, he  has an  academic working  paper that  shows teacher                                                               
retention rates did not change at  all when Alaska changed from a                                                               
DB to a DC plan in 2005.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. FROST concluded  his testimony stating that HB  55 clearly is                                                               
not  written to  put  this  new tier  on  a  successful path.  He                                                               
offered  to work  with  the committee  and  stakeholders to  help                                                               
draft a  bill that best meets  those needs. He offered  to answer                                                               
questions.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:04:28 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR  COSTELLO  stated  that  the  members  could  submit  their                                                               
questions  to her  office  and  she would  get  the answers.  She                                                               
recognized Brad Fluetsch as the  final presenter and asked him to                                                               
provide his credentials followed by his testimony.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
3:04:51 PM                                                                                                                    
BRAD FLUETSCH,  representing self,  Santa Fe, New  Mexico, stated                                                               
that he  is a  planning and  investment officer  for the  City of                                                               
Santa Fe.  He previously  lived in Juneau  and his  previous work                                                               
experience includes  being an investment officer  with the Alaska                                                               
Permanent Fund  Corporation; work  with Sealaska  Corporation; he                                                               
ran his  own investment company for  17 years; and he  has been a                                                               
student of the pension plan since the early '90s.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. FLUETSCH stated  that he would confine his comments  on HB 55                                                               
to a few main topics, the  first of which is defined benefit (DB)                                                               
plans. He  offered his belief  that the  State of Alaska  made an                                                               
excellent  decision  by dropping  the  defined  benefit plan  and                                                               
moving employees  to a defined  contribution plan. The  reason is                                                               
that DB  plans were designed for  employees to work for  30 years                                                               
and contribute to  the plan throughout that time.  Then once they                                                               
retire,  the employees  typically died  within 10  years. The  DB                                                               
plan  worked fine  in that  model,  but people  live longer  now.                                                               
Someone can work for 30 years and  be retired for 40 or 50 years.                                                               
In  that  model the  DB  plan  fails  in every  actuarial  study.                                                               
Employees can't contribute enough and  the plan can't earn enough                                                               
to offset that liability.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:06:42 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FLUETSCH said  his next point is that the  only thing you can                                                               
control in  pension funds  are the  contributions. The  market is                                                               
unpredictable  so  the  return  isn't known  and  in  Alaska  the                                                               
liabilities   are  also   unknown  because   of  what   he  calls                                                               
legislative  tinkering   with  the  plan.   He  said  HB   55  is                                                               
legislative  tinkering   because  it   is  adding   benefits  and                                                               
expanding  the liabilities  without a  complete understanding  of                                                               
how the whole plan works. He  said the biggest problem with HB 55                                                               
are  the  liabilities associated  with  the  ever expanding  life                                                               
expectancy of Americans. That will  be the death knell of defined                                                               
benefit plans.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:08:02 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FLUETSCH said  the last  point he  would talk  about is  the                                                               
credibility of  calling a seven  page brief an  actuarial report.                                                               
It doesn't  answer questions  and it doesn't  say what  the risks                                                               
are.  It   does  little  more   than  explain  some   very  basic                                                               
assumptions.  What  it should  be  is  a thorough  analysis  with                                                               
numbers, demographics,  and charts. Buck's actuary  said the risk                                                               
was  mitigated.   However,  states   that  have   mitigated  risk                                                               
generally have had to give more.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR.  FLUETSCH described  the City  of  Santa Fe  pension plan  to                                                               
emphasize that the  tweaks to the pension plan proposed  in HB 55                                                               
are unlikely to successfully affect  retention. He said the point                                                               
is that  if the state  is having difficulty with  recruitment and                                                               
retention it  should look  at pay  policy, work  environment, and                                                               
non-retirement  benefits such  as  child care.  He suggested  the                                                               
committee  think about  what else  the  state could  do with  the                                                               
money it would contribute under  HB 55 that would make employment                                                               
in police and fire more attractive.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:11:14 PM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR COSTELLO  restated that any  questions the members  had for                                                               
any  of the  testifiers should  be  submitted to  her office  and                                                               
those would be passed along to the appropriate parties.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR COSTELLO held HB 55 in committee.                                                                                         

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Christopher Dean Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Matthew Barth Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Matthew Barth Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Lena Lafferty Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Lena Lafferty Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Clay Bezenek Cover Letter_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Clay Bezenek Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Gabriel King Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Devon Thomas Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Devon Thomas Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Chad Stigen Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Dominic Wenzell Board Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Dominic Wenzell Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Valery Kudryn Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Valery Kudryn Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Hannah St. George Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Taylor Friend Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Taylor Friend Resume_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Janice Hill Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Sterling Strait Board Application_Redacted.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
Letters of Support for Devon Thomas.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
GOVERNOR'S APPOINTEES
HB 55 Actuarial Report 3.4.22.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
HB 55
HB 55 Written Testimony as of 4.3.22.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
HB 55
HB 55 Presentation - Fornia 4.4.22.pdf SL&C 4/4/2022 1:30:00 PM
HB 55